The Last-Minute Voter’s Guide

A checklist that may help you decide how to vote (as though you are undecided...)

I’m taking a little detour here to post about the election.  As we head into the frenzy of the last few days of the campaign, I thought it might be useful to do a reality check.

Unlike 99% of the people writing about politics, I am not using this post to take one side or the other.  My purpose is to suggest that one can look at this election rationally, and decide on that basis.

Much of the noise consists of people screaming at each other over the perceived deficiencies of the two main candidates for President. I think this is misguided. We are being told that for once, policy doesn’t matter. I disagree.

Never in my lifetime has there been a clearer, more binary policy choice between the two parties. As much as people say that Trump has (captured/destroyed/remade) the Republican party, we know very clearly what the policy implications are of voting for Republicans this year, just as we know clearly what the policy implications are of voting for Democrats. The tiny squawks from marginal elements in either party barely matter.

This reality check consists of a seven-item voter policy guide. There are seven major questions on which 1) the two parties offer clear and diametrically opposite visions; 2) the choice will have lasting structural effects on our society and economy, and 3) the impact will be felt by the entire world. I have tried to state the choices for each question as neutrally as possible, ie., without including value judgements in the wording.

Take this as a quiz, then follow the instructions at the end.

What share of taxes should be borne by the rich? (18 points)

a) More

b) Less

Medicare and social security (12 points):

a) Should be kept solvent by increasing funding if needed

b) Should be kept solvent by reducing benefits and eligibility

Reproductive freedom (15 points):

a) We should restore abortion rights nationally and protect peoples’ access to contraception

b) Ending Roe was the right decision. We should now aim for a national abortion ban, and look at restricting contraception.

Climate Change: (15 points):

a) Climate change is real and poses huge risks, including potential economic disaster. Government has a necessary role in addressing it

b) Climate change is not a threat, and humans don’t cause it anyway. We should not waste resources fighting something that may be a hoax.

Renewable Energy and EVs (10 points):

a) These are industries of the future, and are already providing millions of jobs. We need to compete in these industries or lose out to China

b) These industries are a boondoggle and should be opposed with higher taxes, regulatory obstacles and tariffs. We should bet on fossil fuels, which are cheaper and more reliable

International alliances: (15 points):

a) Our alliances benefit us and contribute to our security. We should be investing in our existing alliances and seeking new ones

b) Our alliances exploit us and do not return any benefits. We should reduce our engagement and be more self-reliant

Immigration: (15 points):

a) Immigration benefits us, and keeps our economy dynamic. We should make it easier for people to come here legally, even while enforcing our laws and securing our borders

b) Immigration is a threat and is destroying our country. We should close the borders to further immigration, reduce the grounds for asylum, and expel anyone currently here without documentation

How these items made the list: 

1) Each of these choices has a broad and potentially irreversible impact on the future of the country and the world. 2) These impacts are structural, ie., they will affect everyone regardless of race, religion, ethnicity, wealth or identity. 3) Our current politics and the impending election pose a clear binary choice on each of these issues.  The two major parties have repeatedly and explicitly spelled out positions on these issues, often in writing.

You may feel that there are other issues which should be on this list. Examples could be the fentanyl crisis, crime rates, racial and gender discrimination and social media addiction. I would argue that these issues either do not pose existential questions for our nation as a whole, or do not map to today’s binary politics.

For example, the two major parties are split into many factions with regard to how to deal with the dangers of social media;

How we treat trans people (are they a threat to our children, or a marginalized group deserving of greater protection?) may say something about our moral and cultural values, but does not impact most people directly;

Crime has actually been declining steeply for most of the past 30 years, making the debate less relevant even as it remains passionate:

What the data says about crime in the U.S.
The two primary sources of government crime statistics both paint an incomplete picture, though efforts at improvement…www.pewresearch.org

On the other hand, things like relative tax burden, the environment and international balance of power have broad, lasting and profound effects on everyone. If you strongly disagree, of course, go ahead and make up your own version of this checklist.

The point is that, despite all the noise and smoke about the presidential candidates, this still can and should be an election about policies. That has always been the way it should be, but this time around it seems a lot of people are losing sight of that. 

What to do:

Total up the points you gave to (a) answers and the points you gave to (b) answers. If (a) has more, you should be voting a straight Democratic ticket. If (b) has more, you should be voting a straight Republican ticket.  If you come out close to 50-50, then I guess you have to decide which issues matter the most.

That’s all there is to it. I know that is it unlikely many people are actually undecided. But in case you are, this should tell you pretty clearly where you stand.

Please post your results here, and let us know if they simply confirmed where you already stood, or possibly made you rethink your position. Did you change the list? If so, what did you add or drop?

Finally, if you are considering splitting your ticket, I would be interested in knowing how you got there. Thank you!